The central bank official points out that the balance of risk for economic activity has become more uncertain and with a downward bias.
For the governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), Alejandro Diaz de León, the reductions in ratings and credit prospects of the country and of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), recently made by some agencies, is a clear risk factor that must be addressed.
During his participation in the National Meeting of National Advisors 2019 of BBVA Mexico, the central banker mentioned that today there is more uncertainty regarding what will happen with economic activity.
"We have clearly had a greater economic slowdown than we anticipated, but it is still easy to extrapolate very clearly what will happen in the following quarters in terms of the pace of economic activity. That is to say, the uncertainty regarding the economic activity is greater ".
The official stressed that the issue of qualifications is a risk factor that should be addressed. "It's something that has already happened and has been known to cope. We hope that is the case and it is not a major factor of concerns ahead. "
Díaz de León pointed to the deterioration in the rating of the country's or Pemex's debt, as one of the risks for the growth scenario, in addition to the commercial tensions between the United States and China, the negotiation of the T-MEC, and the issue of tariffs.
Also, effects on the international financial market and effects on investment or consumption.
"In the forecast horizon, the balance of risks for economic activity has become more uncertain and maintains a downward bias," he said.
Correct structural problems
As for the factors that would generate a rise in growth forecasts, the governor of Banxico emphasized the formalization of the T-MEC; higher than expected growth of industrial production in the United States, and a dynamism of aggregate demand higher than expected.
The official explained that other variables that could hinder the economy in the coming months, according to the result of the survey of analysts, are: the issue of insecurity, political uncertainty, corruption, impunity and lack of rule of law.
In this way, he considered that it is important to correct structural and institutional problems that have prevented the economy from achieving greater growth and greater productivity, such as strengthening the rule of law, and policies that promote an adequate macroeconomic functioning.
"We must continue to maintain a sound macroeconomic framework, and that implies the combination of public finances, monetary policy and a robust financial system capable of withstanding shocks," he explained.
He also said that another great challenge is to promote greater investment.
Regarding the risks for inflation, the central banker commented that there are pressures to the exchange rate due to external or internal factors; greater pressures on the prices of energy or agricultural products; an escalation of protectionist measures, and deterioration in public finances.
"The truth is that among the elements of risk or that could push inflation down two stand out: the first is that the conditions of slack in the economy expand more than expected, is something that we are monitoring closely, and that there are less pressures on the prices of some goods, included in the non-core sub-index ".
Exposed to cyber attacks
On the other hand, the governor of Banxico said that the financial system is exposed to risks of cyber attacks, and there is certainty that there will be attacks as there have already been in some entities.
However, he said that today the system in general is in a much better position than it was a few years ago.
Despite this, he insisted that financial institutions should incorporate the issue of cybersecurity from corporate governance, in addition to investing more in the areas of information technology.
"We have made it mandatory for institutions to have a cybersecurity officer. We have protocols, we are better prepared. This (however) is a race that should not be said to have already arrived. It is a permanent effort, because unfortunately the hackers use cutting edge information. You are exposed whether you want it or not and it requires effort, "he said.
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